While Apple usually adheres to a two-year cycle for process nodes, using the 7nm and 5nm processes for two years each, it appears that Apple is set to continue with the 3nm process for a third consecutive year in the upcoming iPhone 17 lineup. There are various factors contributing to this decision, which we will explore further.
Three-Year Silicon Cycle
This isn’t the first occurrence of maintaining the same process node for three years; it simply wasn’t as apparent during the first instance.
Apple launched the A14 chipset, the inaugural Apple Silicon based on TSMC’s 5nm architecture, in 2020, followed by the A15 built on a refined 5nm process in 2021. The A16 chipset debuted with the iPhone 14 Pro in 2022, purportedly using a “4nm” process.
However, although it is marketed as 4nm, TSMC designates the N4 process employed in the A16 Bionic as being part of the “5nm technology family”:
TSMC is continually expanding its 5nm technology family to cater to diverse customer requirements. This includes N5P, N4, and N4P for improved power, performance, and density, as well as N4X, which is tailored for high-performance computing (HPC) applications, and N5A for automotive needs.
The pace of new silicon fabrication development isn’t matching previous speeds, leading us to essentially adopt a three-year release cycle. In fact, the first 3nm chips appeared in Apple products in 2023, as Apple opted for an early production 3nm process (N3B) that many companies skipped.
Anticipated 2nm Release: iPhone 17 vs. iPhone 18
Initial speculations indicated that the iPhone 17 would utilize TSMC’s advanced 2nm manufacturing process, but this now seems unlikely. Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo suggests that the upcoming iPhone 17 lineup will feature the third generation 3nm process, N3P:
The processors for the 2025 iPhone 17 models will be constructed using TSMC’s N3P process/3-nanometer technology. The processor for the 2026 iPhone 18 models is anticipated to integrate TSMC’s 2-nanometer technology. Nevertheless, due to expense considerations, not all new iPhone 18 models may include a 2-nanometer processor.
Kuo notes that the iPhone 17 lineup won’t incorporate 2nm technology, so if you’re seeking the latest advancement in silicon fabrication, waiting for the iPhone 18 Pro models might be wise.
It appears that the standard iPhone 18 variants will likely retain 3nm chips, possibly utilizing either the same N3P process seen in the iPhone 17 or potentially the fourth generation N3X process. Time will reveal the outcome.
2nm Production Timeline
TSMC is projected to initiate risk production of its first generation 2nm process (N2) sometime in 2025, with mass production slated for later that same year. This schedule could potentially align with the launch of the iPhone 17; however, Apple has opted to delay adoption for various reasons.
This isn’t unusual, as Apple also held off on implementing the first generation 3nm process, which began mass production in late 2022, for an additional year.
Moreover, Apple is not expected to adopt the 2nm for the M5 series of chips in Macs and iPads, which will similarly utilize the third generation 3nm process, according to The Elec (as reported by MacRumors).
Thus, it may be 2026 or later before we witness 2nm chips in Apple devices, based on current information.
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