As Apple prepares to unveil its earnings for the crucial holiday quarter, many observers are eager to see the influence of Apple Intelligence on iPhone sales. Here’s why that impact may not be immediate, yet is certainly on the horizon.
iPhone 16 is performing well, but the significant AI impact is forthcoming
Following the introduction of its AI features in June, analysts began forecasting an upcoming iPhone supercycle.
The expectation was that AI would significantly enhance iPhone demand and prompt upgrades more quickly than usual.
During Apple’s last earnings report, the iPhone 16 lineup had just made its debut, and the initial Apple Intelligence features were not yet available.
Thus, it was to be expected that sales were generally average for a new iPhone release. There was a 5% increase, which certainly doesn’t align with the notion of a ‘supercycle’ growth.
This week’s earnings will provide a clearer picture of any potential AI influence.
While Apple is anticipated to report a successful quarter, expectations suggest iPhone sales will remain strong but not exceptional.
It’s important to note that the success of the iPhone is extraordinarily significant. No other product in Apple’s very lucrative portfolio comes close to matching its sales figures.
Yet, it’s common for the iPhone to perform well. What’s crucial for Wall Street is growth, and it seems that substantial AI influence may not be imminent.
Rest assured, the anticipated iPhone supercycle is likely on the way in the coming years—it may just take a bit longer than initially expected.
Hardware improvements set the stage for significant Apple Intelligence features
Apple Intelligence encompasses a suite of software functions, though its effectiveness is directly tied to the company’s ability to innovate with powerful hardware.
We have already begun to observe the influence of AI on Apple’s hardware decisions:
- the complete iPhone 16 lineup has been upgraded to 8GB of RAM, a specification that was previously reserved for Pro models, with even the upcoming iPhone SE 4 set to include an AI-compatible chip and RAM
- Apple has recently upgraded all new Macs to feature 16 GB of base RAM, a change that likely wouldn’t have occurred otherwise
- in the coming months, Apple’s entire iPad lineup will be equipped with advanced chips that support AI—this includes even the more affordable model
Speculation also indicates that Apple is preparing notable hardware innovations.
Later this year, the iPhone 17 Pro lineup is expected to come with 12GB of RAM, and all iPhone 17 models will have enhanced cooling systems. We can also anticipate significant performance increases with the upcoming A19 chip series, particularly concerning the Neural Engine.
As a longtime observer of Apple, it’s uncommon to witness such rapid and substantial hardware advancements.
This necessity arises from Apple Intelligence—not just for the current functionalities, but for everything planned in iOS 19, iOS 20, and future iterations.
In the next few years, iPhone hardware is set to evolve dramatically to support forthcoming AI features.
The unprecedented hardware and software developments will likely make earlier iPhone models feel outdated quickly.
Apple Intelligence iPhone supercycle: Conclusion
At present, the existing Apple Intelligence features aren’t significantly propelling iPhone upgrade numbers. Is AI making a some impact? Absolutely, but it’s not monumental.
However, within the next two to three years, I firmly believe that AI will emerge as a substantial incentive for upgrades. The benefits provided by Apple Intelligence will become increasingly undeniable.
It’s just a matter of time before that anticipated supercycle unfolds.
Do you believe AI will spark an iPhone supercycle? Share your thoughts in the comments.
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