While the emergence of AI was forecasted to trigger a supercycle in smartphone sales, including both iPhone and Android users, that hasn’t yet materialized according to the global smartphone trends for 2024. Although sales are on the uptick, the reasons behind them are not what one would typically anticipate.
No sign of an iPhone supercycle, yet smartphone shipments see a surprising resurgence
This week, the IDC (International Data Corporation) unveiled its projections for global smartphone shipments in 2024.
Overall, smartphone shipments are projected to increase by 6.2% following a period of decline over the last couple of years.
- iPhones are expected to grow by just 0.4%, indicating no supercycle.
- In contrast, Android devices are predicted to experience a growth of 7.6%.
What’s fueling this positive trend? Are AI technologies or foldable phones the driving forces?
It turns out, not really.
Even though GenAI remains a hot topic and priority among many vendors, its influence on demand and early upgrades has been minimal.
As for foldables, the IDC points out that they continue to attract attention despite having low market volumes. In the third quarter, foldable shipments actually fell by 7.4%, even as many major manufacturers rolled out new models.
So what is actually driving the growth in smartphone shipments for 2024? It’s the “low end devices.”
The significant rise in Android devices, with a 7.6% year-over-year increase, is concentrated in markets like APeJC, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, and China, primarily driven by low-end devices, crucial for the 6.2% growth this year.
Indeed, advancements in generative AI and innovative designs like foldables are not fueling the smartphone resurgence in 2024.
Instead, it is overdue upgrades and budget-friendly devices that are enhancing the market.
Could 2025 bring a shift? Absolutely. The IDC still anticipates that AI and foldables will contribute to growth in the high-end segment in the coming years. However, at present, there is no indication of a major supercycle of upgrades prompted by AI.
What are your thoughts on the smartphone trends for 2024? Is a supercycle for iPhone on the horizon? Share your views in the comments.
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